With a global push toward decarbonization, scientists and innovators keep on exploring next-generation solutions to meet energy demands sustainably. Fourth-generation fuels, a cutting-edge development in renewable energy, are gaining attention for their ability to tackle climate challenges head-on. But what exactly are fourth-generation fuels, and how could they reshape our economy, society, and environment? 

What Are Fourth-Generation Fuels? 

Fourth-generation fuels are advanced biofuels that integrate renewable energy technologies with carbon capture and storage (CCS). They are designed to be carbon-negative, meaning they actively remove more CO₂ from the atmosphere than they emit during their lifecycle. 

Key Characteristics: 

• Feedstocks: Fourth-generation fuels are produced using non-food biomass, algae, or synthetic methods that leverage captured CO₂ and renewable hydrogen. 

• Carbon Capture Integration: The production process involves capturing CO₂ from the atmosphere or industrial sources, storing it underground or utilizing it in other processes. 

• Technological Advances: These fuels often rely on innovative technologies like artificial photosynthesis, engineered microorganisms, or bioreactors. 

Examples include synthetic fuels made by combining captured CO₂ with green hydrogen and biofuels derived from carbon-absorbing crops paired with BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage). 

Economic impact 

The development of fourth-generation fuels has the potential to revolutionize the global economy. By driving significant investments in advanced manufacturing, biotechnology, and carbon capture infrastructure, these fuels can catalyze economic growth and establish technological leadership for nations that embrace them. They also offer an opportunity to enhance energy security by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels, as their production relies on locally available feedstocks and renewable energy sources. However, the economic promise of fourth-generation fuels comes with challenges. High initial costs for production and infrastructure development remain substantial barriers, and scaling these technologies will require policy support, subsidies, and sustained private-sector investment. 

Societal impact 

Fourth-generation fuels can significantly influence societal structures, starting with job creation. The rise of this industry is expected to generate high-quality jobs in sectors such as research, engineering, agriculture, and clean energy. Rural communities, in particular, may benefit from new opportunities in biomass cultivation and carbon storage projects. Additionally, the adoption of cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels will lead to reduced air pollution, improving public health by minimizing respiratory illnesses, especially in urban and industrialized areas. Moreover, these fuels encourage collaboration between governments, businesses, and local communities, fostering a collective commitment to sustainable practices and empowering citizens to participate in the fight against climate change.  

Environmental impact 

The environmental benefits of fourth-generation fuels are profound. By capturing and storing atmospheric CO₂, they offer a tangible solution for achieving net-negative emissions, which is essential for addressing climate change. This ability to offset emissions is particularly valuable for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as aviation and heavy industry. Furthermore, these fuels are produced using non-arable land or algae-based systems, which reduces competition with food production and helps preserve biodiversity. By integrating renewable energy sources like wind and solar into their production processes, fourth-generation fuels align seamlessly with broader decarbonization strategies and further minimize reliance on fossil fuels, setting a new benchmark for environmental responsibility. 

Challenges and Future Outlook 

While the promise of fourth-generation fuels is immense, several challenges remain: 

• High Development Costs: Achieving commercial viability requires substantial R&D and infrastructure investments. 

• Policy and Regulatory Support: Clear and consistent policies, including carbon pricing and subsidies, are essential to incentivize adoption. 

• Technological Uncertainty: Scaling up these advanced technologies involves overcoming technical hurdles and ensuring reliability. 

Despite these obstacles, the potential benefits make fourth-generation fuels a critical component of the global energy transition. With coordinated efforts from governments, industries, and researchers, these fuels could help pave the way toward a sustainable, carbon-negative future. 

Context 

Our client operates manufacturing sites worldwide and is proactively addressing the challenges of the energy transition to ensure the long-term resilience and sustainability of its operations.

In response to a changing energy landscape, the company launched a strategic foresight initiative to assess potential stress on national electric grids in countries hosting key production sites. The goal was to anticipate risks related to electricity availability.

Missions

In this context, we supported our client in:

• Electricity Outlook: Projecting electricity generation trends through 2040 in 19 countries across Asia, the Americas, and Europe, based on national policies, energy mix evolution, and infrastructure developments.
• Low-Carbon Share: Evaluating the share of low-carbon electricity in each country’s electricity mix today and in 2040.
• Mobility Electrification: Estimating the adoption of electric vehicles and its projected impact on national electricity demand

Key figures

In the race to decarbonize, hard-to-abate industries like transport, mobility, energy, manufacturing, and heavy industries face immense challenges. These sectors are pivotal in achieving global climate goals but require transformative innovation to overcome their reliance on high-emission processes. Enter design fiction: a tool for imagining and prototyping future scenarios that inspire radical innovation while addressing the complexities of decarbonization. 

What is Design Fiction? 

Design fiction is a speculative approach that blends storytelling with prototyping to explore “what if?” scenarios. It goes beyond forecasting trends or analyzing probabilities—it creates immersive, tangible provocations that challenge assumptions and inspire innovation. By developing speculative artifacts such as fictional news reports, prototypes, or policy drafts, design fiction brings possible futures to life, encouraging stakeholders to engage with them. Rather than predicting the future, it envisions alternative realities that push boundaries, provoke dialogue, and open up new possibilities for transformative action.

For hard-to-abate industries, design fiction offers a way to: 

• Explore the integration of emerging low-carbon technologies. 

• Rethink supply chains and production models. 

• Address societal, regulatory, and consumer behavior shifts in response to decarbonization. 

Why hard-to-abate industries need design fiction 

These industries operate within complex ecosystems, often constrained by entrenched practices, high capital costs, and regulatory pressures. Traditional approaches to innovation may fall short in imagining transformative solutions. Design fiction enables stakeholders to: 

1. Visualize low-carbon futures: Crafting scenarios where new technologies—such as hydrogen fuel, carbon capture, or electrified transport systems—are operational within a reimagined value chain. 
2. Challenge assumptions: Provoking fresh thinking about entrenched norms, such as the necessity of fossil fuels in energy-intensive manufacturing. 
3. Align stakeholders: Engaging diverse actors—from policymakers to engineers—through tangible prototypes and narratives that illustrate shared goals. 
4. Test policy and business models: Simulating the implementation of carbon pricing, circular economy strategies, or renewable energy integrations in controlled, fictional contexts. 

Examples of Design Fiction scenarios  

Net-Zero Factories 

A speculative scenario where AI-driven, autonomous factories produce goods using 100% renewable energy, with zero waste and closed-loop recycling systems. What roles would human workers play? What new supply chain dependencies could arise? 

Hydrogen-Powered Transport 

Fictionalized blueprints for hydrogen-powered shipping fleets or aviation systems, paired with narratives about new infrastructure and regulatory frameworks. 

Energy Communities 

A future where localized energy grids enable heavy industries to share renewable energy surpluses, reducing dependency on centralized grids. How might this disrupt existing energy markets? 

How to Implement Design Fiction in Your Organization 

• Assemble a cross-disciplinary team: Combine expertise in engineering, design, sociology, and business to capture diverse perspectives. 

• Identify key challenges: Focus on specific pain points, like process emissions in steel manufacturing or the electrification of long-haul transport. 

• Develop artifacts and scenarios: Create visual, tangible, or interactive prototypes (e.g., mock-ups of decarbonized supply chains or AI-driven energy optimization systems). 

• Facilitate collaborative workshops: Use the scenarios to engage stakeholders in brainstorming and co-creating actionable solutions. 

• Iterate and integrate: Refine the outputs based on feedback, and use insights to inform strategic roadmaps, R&D investments, or policy proposals. 

The Way Forward 

Design fiction is not just a tool for creative exploration; it is a catalyst for systemic change. By challenging entrenched assumptions and fostering collaboration, it can help hard-to-abate industries envision and accelerate their decarbonization journeys. As the world demands urgent climate action, the ability to think boldly and imagine differently is more critical than ever. 

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Before diving into treatment technologies, we recommend reading the first article in this series, where we explore what PFAS are and their devastating environmental and health impacts.

PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) are a group of synthetic chemicals widely used in industrial and consumers products. Due do their persistence and resistance to degradation, they accumulate in the environment and pose significant health risks. Addressing PFAS contamination requires a combination of well-established and emerging treatment technologies that focus on treatment, and increasingly, destruction.

Mature PFAS treatment technologies

Several well-established technologies are currently used for PFAS removal, including:

• Granular Activated Carbon (GAC): One of the most studied methods for removing PFAS, commonly used in drinking water treatment. It helps absorb organic compounds, as well as taste, odor, and synthetic chemicals. GAC works well for longer-chain PFAS like PFOA and PFOS but is less effective for shorter-chain ones like PFBS and PFBA, which don’t adsorb as easily.
• Anion Exchange Resins (AER): They are like tiny magnets that attract and hold onto impurities, preventing them from passing through the water system. Negatively charged PFAS are attracted to the positively charged anion resins. This method can treat almost all PFAS chain lengths but is more expensive than GAC.
• Nanofiltration or Reverse Osmosis Membranes: High-pressure membrane filtration systems, i.e. nanofiltration and reverse osmosis, have been highly effective in eliminating over 90% of PFAS, including short-chain compounds.

Emerging PFAS treatment technologies

A few new innovative technologies are being developed to enhance PFAS removal efficiency:

• Selective Absorbents: Companies like Puraffinity are pioneering precision technologies to target PFAS removal. Their Puratech absorbent solution is designed to integrate seamlessly into existing treatment systems and can be tailored to capture specific PFAS compounds.
• Foam Fractionation: Oxyle has developed a multi-stage foam fractionation, catalytic destruction, and machine learning monitoring process. This method has shown to eliminate over 99% of PFAS.

While these technologies improve PFAS capture, they do not destroy the compound. This limitation has driven interest in developing destruction technologies.

Emerging PFAS destruction technologies

Unlike traditional removal methods, destruction technologies aim to completely break down PFAS compounds rather than simply capture them. While holding promise, these technologies are still energy-intensive and costly.

• Supercritical Water Oxidation (SCWO): This oxidation process converts organic contaminants into water, carbon dioxide, and inert mineral residue. 347Water has developed AirSCWO systems, which have been proven effective in destroying PFAS-laden ion exchange resins.
• Electrochemical Oxidation: This technique is an electrochemical reaction that degrades PFAS compounds on a large scale while producing little to no waste, making it a potential solution for large-scale PFAS degradation.

Additionnally, researchers are working on next-generation PFAS destruction technologies such as low-temperature mineralization, plasma technology, and sonolysis.

Destruction technologies require high PFAS concentrations to be effective and tend to be energy-intensive, making them less suitable for diluted waste streams. Furthermore, these technologies are quite immature, requiring validation before large-scale deployment. To address these challenges, technology providers have been exploring hybrid solutions that combine both removal and destruction methods to provide a holistic solution. For instance, Gradiant has developed a technology that enables on-site PFAS removal and destruction, eliminating the need for waste handling, landfilling, or incineration.

3 startups to draw inspiration from

Oxyle

A Swiss start-up that developed a technology which is claimed to have over 99% removal of PFAS with lower energy use compared to traditional methods. The three-stage process involves foam fractionation, catalytic destruction, and machine learning monitoring.

Gradiant

A U.S.-based water and wastewater treatment solutions provider, Gradiant has developed ForeverGone, a technology that is capable of removing and destroying PFAS on site, without the need for waste handling, landfilling, or incineration. It is different from conventional solutions such as granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange

Puraffinity

A UK-based start-up which focused on developing precision technologies for the removal of PFAS from water. Puraffinity has developed an absorbent solution called Puratech, which integrates perfectly into existing water treatment systems and can be adapted to target specific PFAS compounds.

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123Fab #104

1 topic, 2 key figures, 3 startups to draw inspiration from

Urban areas face rising temperatures from the combined effects of climate change and the “urban heat island” phenomenon. Concrete and asphalt trap heat, creating hotter cities, escalating energy demands, and endangering vulnerable populations. To mitigate these effects, solutions must address the problem across all scales: city, neighborhood, street, building, and individual levels.

City-Level Strategies

At the city scale, urban planning focuses on creating cooler environments by improving airflow, increasing plant cover, and reducing heat-retaining surfaces:

• Urban Planning and Cool Corridors: Designing open spaces and cool corridors encourages air circulation and reduces heat concentration.
• Increasing Plant Cover: Initiatives like Paris’ Oasis Project transform schoolyards into green spaces, doubling as cool islands and heat refuges.
• Low-Emission Zones (ZFE): Reducing vehicular traffic in cities cuts emissions, indirectly lowering heat retention.
• Urban Water Management: Large-scale rainwater management systems and urban basins help infiltrate water into the soil. This not only prevents flooding but also encourages evaporation, naturally cooling the air during heatwaves.

Neighborhood-Level Strategies

Neighborhood interventions tackle heat through surface treatments, targeted greenery, and smart solutions:

• High-Albedo Materials: Reflective materials reduce heat absorption, like those used in Paris’ “cool islands.” High-albedo materials are surfaces that reflect more sunlight than they absorb, helping to lower surface temperatures.
• Vegetation and Cool Islands: Projects like Urban Canopée integrate vegetation into neighborhoods, while ENGIE Lab Crigen’s Skycooling panels provide shade-based cooling.
• Water Permeation: Soil desilting and localized rainwater infiltration enhance evaporation, which cools the surrounding air naturally. Incorporating small water features like ponds or fountains within neighborhoods can amplify these cooling effects.

Street-Level Strategies

Streets act as heat hotspots, but targeted solutions can reduce their thermal footprint:

• Draining Pavements: Products like Holcim’s concrete, a permeable concrete Hydromedia, allow rainwater to infiltrate the soil, supporting evaporation and natural cooling.
• Green Walls and Photovoltaic Shades: Vegetated walls and shaded walkways lower street temperatures while improving aesthetics and functionality.
• Localized Water Features: Incorporating fountains, small basins, or artificial streams along streets can provide significant localized cooling effects.

Building-Level Strategies

Buildings are central to urban cooling, as they represent a significant proportion of heat storage:

• Green Roofs: Vegetative layers provide natural insulation and cooling, reducing the heat stored by buildings.
• Reflective Paint: Products like Cool Roof reduce heat absorption, keeping interiors cooler.
• Advanced Insulation: Aerogels, a cutting-edge material known for their lightweight properties and high thermal resistance, can significantly reduce heating and cooling costs by providing superior insulation compared to traditional materials.
• Bio-Reactive Facades: Innovations like XTU Architects’ microalgae facades actively regulate temperature by producing oxygen and absorbing heat.
• Rainwater Harvesting: Buildings can integrate systems to collect rainwater, which can then be used for evaporative cooling or irrigation for rooftop and vertical gardens, further reducing heat buildup.

Individual Actions

Individual behaviors also play a vital role in reducing urban heat:

• Soft Mobility: Walking, cycling, and using public transport help reduce vehicular emissions and heat contributions.
• Urban Greening: Individuals can plant greenery at home, install small water features in gardens, or volunteer for local tree-planting initiatives to enhance cooling.
• Water Stewardship: Households can promote cooling by managing rainwater infiltration with permeable garden designs, rain barrels, or bioswales to ensure water is available for natural evaporation processes.

Cooling urban environments requires a multifaceted approach across different scales. From city-wide planning and water management to individual actions like soft mobility, these strategies not only provide immediate relief from heat but also promote the long-term sustainability of urban life. Addressing the urban heat island effect is a pressing necessity as cities prepare for increasingly extreme temperatures in the decades ahead.

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2 Key Figures

4

Temperatures can be 1 to 4°C higher than surrounding rural areas due to the presence of heat-retaining infrastructures like concrete and asphalt.

15%

A 10% increase in tree cover in cities reduces surface temperatures and lower energy consumption needs for cooling by around 15%.

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3 startups to draw inspiration from

CoolRoof

French-based startup specialized in reflective coatings for rooftops and pavements to reduce heat absorption in cities, lowering temperatures and energy consumption.

SolCold

A materials startup from Israel that creates innovative coatings which cool buildings by converting heat into light, reflecting sunlight to reduce urban temperatures.

Green City Solutions

German startup that develops urban green spaces using “CityTree,” a smart, air-purifying moss wall that cools and cleans the air in densely populated areas through IoT integration.

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Context 

Our client has developed a strong innovation activity to fuel its transformation. In this context, our client asked us to explore market demand for a new offering in dismantling and extracting valuable components from lithium-ion batteries.

Mission

We carried out a study to define the go-to-market strategy:

• Map of the second-life battery value chain, from manufacturing to end-of-life
• Segmentation of second-life component buyers
• Real-world applications of second-life components
• Interviews with 8 potential customers on interest and technical needs
• List of existing technical standards for selling second-life battery cells
• Review of the EU battery regulation compliance
• Recommendations on the go-to-market strategy and prioritization of potential customers to address first

Key figures

Context 

In view of the declining potential of its historical Oil & gas business, our client investigated several diversification opportunities in adjacent markets, consistent with its know-how and energy transition roadmap.

In this context, the Innovation department wanted to evaluate the potential for diversification in the field of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and to identify innovative partners with whom to create a complementary business.

Mission

We carried out a deep dive study divided into three steps:

• A market study to paint a complete picture of all the megatrends (new business models, technologies, use cases)
• A startup landscape to identify the innovative players driving CCUS forward worldwide
• A startup scoring to establish recommendations on the most relevant options for collaboration (R&D agreement, commercial partnership, investment, acquisition, etc.)

Key figures