With a global push toward decarbonization, scientists and innovators keep on exploring next-generation solutions to meet energy demands sustainably. Fourth-generation fuels, a cutting-edge development in renewable energy, are gaining attention for their ability to tackle climate challenges head-on. But what exactly are fourth-generation fuels, and how could they reshape our economy, society, and environment? 

What Are Fourth-Generation Fuels? 

Fourth-generation fuels are advanced biofuels that integrate renewable energy technologies with carbon capture and storage (CCS). They are designed to be carbon-negative, meaning they actively remove more CO₂ from the atmosphere than they emit during their lifecycle. 

Key Characteristics: 

• Feedstocks: Fourth-generation fuels are produced using non-food biomass, algae, or synthetic methods that leverage captured CO₂ and renewable hydrogen. 

• Carbon Capture Integration: The production process involves capturing CO₂ from the atmosphere or industrial sources, storing it underground or utilizing it in other processes. 

• Technological Advances: These fuels often rely on innovative technologies like artificial photosynthesis, engineered microorganisms, or bioreactors. 

Examples include synthetic fuels made by combining captured CO₂ with green hydrogen and biofuels derived from carbon-absorbing crops paired with BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage). 

Economic impact 

The development of fourth-generation fuels has the potential to revolutionize the global economy. By driving significant investments in advanced manufacturing, biotechnology, and carbon capture infrastructure, these fuels can catalyze economic growth and establish technological leadership for nations that embrace them. They also offer an opportunity to enhance energy security by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels, as their production relies on locally available feedstocks and renewable energy sources. However, the economic promise of fourth-generation fuels comes with challenges. High initial costs for production and infrastructure development remain substantial barriers, and scaling these technologies will require policy support, subsidies, and sustained private-sector investment. 

Societal impact 

Fourth-generation fuels can significantly influence societal structures, starting with job creation. The rise of this industry is expected to generate high-quality jobs in sectors such as research, engineering, agriculture, and clean energy. Rural communities, in particular, may benefit from new opportunities in biomass cultivation and carbon storage projects. Additionally, the adoption of cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels will lead to reduced air pollution, improving public health by minimizing respiratory illnesses, especially in urban and industrialized areas. Moreover, these fuels encourage collaboration between governments, businesses, and local communities, fostering a collective commitment to sustainable practices and empowering citizens to participate in the fight against climate change.  

Environmental impact 

The environmental benefits of fourth-generation fuels are profound. By capturing and storing atmospheric CO₂, they offer a tangible solution for achieving net-negative emissions, which is essential for addressing climate change. This ability to offset emissions is particularly valuable for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as aviation and heavy industry. Furthermore, these fuels are produced using non-arable land or algae-based systems, which reduces competition with food production and helps preserve biodiversity. By integrating renewable energy sources like wind and solar into their production processes, fourth-generation fuels align seamlessly with broader decarbonization strategies and further minimize reliance on fossil fuels, setting a new benchmark for environmental responsibility. 

Challenges and Future Outlook 

While the promise of fourth-generation fuels is immense, several challenges remain: 

• High Development Costs: Achieving commercial viability requires substantial R&D and infrastructure investments. 

• Policy and Regulatory Support: Clear and consistent policies, including carbon pricing and subsidies, are essential to incentivize adoption. 

• Technological Uncertainty: Scaling up these advanced technologies involves overcoming technical hurdles and ensuring reliability. 

Despite these obstacles, the potential benefits make fourth-generation fuels a critical component of the global energy transition. With coordinated efforts from governments, industries, and researchers, these fuels could help pave the way toward a sustainable, carbon-negative future. 

Context 

Our client operates manufacturing sites worldwide and is proactively addressing the challenges of the energy transition to ensure the long-term resilience and sustainability of its operations.

In response to a changing energy landscape, the company launched a strategic foresight initiative to assess potential stress on national electric grids in countries hosting key production sites. The goal was to anticipate risks related to electricity availability.

Missions

In this context, we supported our client in:

• Electricity Outlook: Projecting electricity generation trends through 2040 in 19 countries across Asia, the Americas, and Europe, based on national policies, energy mix evolution, and infrastructure developments.
• Low-Carbon Share: Evaluating the share of low-carbon electricity in each country’s electricity mix today and in 2040.
• Mobility Electrification: Estimating the adoption of electric vehicles and its projected impact on national electricity demand

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Context 

Our client has developed a strong innovation activity to fuel its transformation. In this context, our client asked us to explore market demand for a new offering in dismantling and extracting valuable components from lithium-ion batteries.

Mission

We carried out a study to define the go-to-market strategy:

• Map of the second-life battery value chain, from manufacturing to end-of-life
• Segmentation of second-life component buyers
• Real-world applications of second-life components
• Interviews with 8 potential customers on interest and technical needs
• List of existing technical standards for selling second-life battery cells
• Review of the EU battery regulation compliance
• Recommendations on the go-to-market strategy and prioritization of potential customers to address first

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Context 

In view of the declining potential of its historical Oil & gas business, our client investigated several diversification opportunities in adjacent markets, consistent with its know-how and energy transition roadmap.

In this context, the Innovation department wanted to evaluate the potential for diversification in the field of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and to identify innovative partners with whom to create a complementary business.

Mission

We carried out a deep dive study divided into three steps:

• A market study to paint a complete picture of all the megatrends (new business models, technologies, use cases)
• A startup landscape to identify the innovative players driving CCUS forward worldwide
• A startup scoring to establish recommendations on the most relevant options for collaboration (R&D agreement, commercial partnership, investment, acquisition, etc.)

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123Fab #99

1 topic, 2 key figures, 3 startups to draw inspiration from

People generally link global warming with carbon dioxide (CO2) but, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains, 30% of the increase in global temperature since pre-industrial levels is due to higher methane (CH4) concentrations in the atmosphere. This is because methane is extremely more effective at trapping heat.

Where does methane come from?

The IEA has estimated that 40% of methane comes from natural sources (wetlands, biomass burning…), and the remaining 60% from human activities (agriculture, oil & gas production, waste). The two pathways to methane production are:

• Gas leaks – methane is the main component of natural gas. Thus, it can leak from pipelines and drilling.
• Decomposition of organic matter – when organic matter is in oxygen-free environments, particular microbes called methanogens take the lead in breaking down the organisms. This process, called methanogenesis, leads to the creation of methane.

According to McKinsey, five industries could reduce global annual methane emissions by 20% by 2030 and 46% by 2050. Those are agriculture, oil and gas, coal mining, solid-waste management, and wastewater management.

What about methane capture from the air?

Methane is 200 times less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2 — a scarcity that makes removing it a technical challenge. Capturing methane would require processing a lot of air, which could require an extremely large amount of energy. And unlike CO2, which can be captured both physically and chemically in a variety of solvents and porous solids, methane is completely non-polar and interacts very weakly with most materials. However, researchers claim to have found a promising solution. A class of crystalline materials, called zeolites, capable of soaking up the gas. Regardless of this solution, the difficulty of capturing methane from the air is the reason why most technologies focus on oxidizing the greenhouse gas rather than “hooking” it out.

Startups are developing innovations to curb methane emissions

For the decomposition of organic matter:

• in the gut of ruminants (like cows and cattle) – Australian startup Rumin8 and Swedish startup Volta Greentech are fighting this issue by developing seaweed-based nutritional supplements that inhibit methane production.
• on landfills and wastewater – US startup LoCi Controls bolsters the methane capture process using solar-powered devices.
• on wetlands – UK methane capture startup bluemethane has developed a technology to capture methane from water, enabling to mitigate the methane production from rice cultivation.

For gas leaks:

• oil & gas production – UK startup Kuva Systems uses short-wave infrared cameras to autonomously monitor and alert oil and gas companies about methane leaks. Whereas US startup BioSqueeze has developed a biomineralization technology that seals miniscule leakage pathways in oil and gas wells.
• melting permafrost – the trapped organic matter in the frozen seafloors or shallow seas is emitted when they thaw. US startup Blue Dot Change is investigating whether releasing ion particles into the exhaust steam of ship vessels crossing the ocean can accelerate the destruction of methane.

A methane tax just like carbon taxes

Norway was one of the first countries to introduce a carbon tax in 1991. Aside from carbon, the harmful gases regulated by the tax also include methane. All Oil & Gas operators on the country’s continental shelf are now required to report all methane emissions from their activities. As a result, studies show that the country has succeeded to consistently maintain low methane emissions. Canada is proposing to require companies to inspect their infrastructure monthly, fixing the leaks they find as part of efforts to reduce the sector’s methane emissions by 75% by 2030 (compared with 2012). Although the EU is among 150 signatories to the Global Methane Pledge – an agreement to cut emissions of methane by 30% – EU energy chief warned early March that the EU was lagging in the race to curb methane emissions. Since the proposals on methane in 2021, they have been watered down.

In short, methane will be critical to solving the net-zero equation. The good news is that mature technologies are at hand. From feed additives for cattle to new rice-farming techniques, to advanced approaches for oil and gas leak detection and landgas methane capture. Where costs are prohibitive, there is a need for coordinated action to create the infrastructure and fiscal conditions that would support further action. Finally, across the board, there is a need for more monitoring and implementation.

2 Key Figures

Budget of $60-110 billion annually up to 2030

Full deployment of the methane abatement measures would cost an estimated $150-$220 billion annually by 2040 and $230-$340 billion annually by 2050.

< 100 funded companies

Tracxn

3 startups to draw inspiration from

Kayyros

French-based startup founded in 2016 which is a developer of an energy analytics platform for traders, investors, operators and governments. Kayrros powers part of the Global Methane Tracker.

BioSqueeze

US-based startup founded in 2021 that has developed a biomineralization technology that seals miniscule leakage pathways in oil and gas wells.

Rumin8

Australian-based startup founded in 2021 which is a manufacturer of seaweed-based nutritional supplements for livestock that inhibit methane production. The startup is backed by Bill Gates’ fund Breakthrough Energy Ventures.

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Among the numerous decarbonization solutions under development, three major carbon capture applications stand out today: industrial point source carbon capture, direct air capture (DAC) and bioenergy with carbon capture. Although industrial point source carbon capture appears to be the main focus for most decarbonization roadmaps thanks to increasingly mature and cost-effective technologies driving greater deployment across industrial sites, several challenges must be addressed before it can reach sufficient scale, including policy and regulatory support, access to funding, public acceptance and further cost improvement.

Carbon Capture-as-a-Service (CCaaS) is a business model that is gaining ground in part to circumvent the huge CAPEX hurdles encountered in these type of infrastructure projects. By opting for a one-stop shop solution that handles the entire value chain, hard-to-abate industries can pay to capture their CO2 emissions on a per-ton basis, while other specialized actors take on the risk (and potential financial reward) of managing the full value chain from capture to utilization or storage.

In January, Aster Fab moderated a panel featuring Tim Cowan (VP Corporate Development at Carbon Clean), Silvia Gentilucci (Technology Onshore Planning at SAIPEM) and Michael Evans (CEO of Cambridge Carbon Capture) to discuss the strengths and prospects of the CCaaS business model.

Takeaways from the discussion included:

According to the latest Global Carbon Budget published in November 2022, if emissions are not reduced through decarbonization technologies such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS), the world will have exhausted its 1.5°C carbon budget – the cumulative amount of CO2 emissions permitted over a period of time to keep within the 1.5°C threshold – in nine years. Indeed, the equation highlighted is quite simple: there are about 380Gt of CO₂-equivalent emissions left in the 1.5°C budget, and right now we use just over 40Gt of it each year.

As such, CCUS is recognized as a necessary piece of the decarbonization jigsaw, but the adoption isn’t moving fast enough. According to a McKinsey analysis, CCUS adoption must increase 120-fold by 2050 for countries to achieve their net-zero reduction goals, reaching at least 4.2 gigatons per annum (GTPA) of CO₂ captured.

In 2021, Decarb Connect conducted a benchmarking survey of industry attitudes towards CCUS that revealed that 65% of executives working in hard-to-abate industries see CCUS as ‘critical’ or ‘important’ for reaching their 2030/2050 goals. It also reveals that 41% are favorable to as CCaaS model, while 59% prefer a mix of funded and owned CCUS. In other words, no executive opted for the traditional model of owning and operating the infrastructure themselves.

Thus, the CCaaS business model appears to be a promising way to accelerate the adoption of carbon capture technology for industrial players:

• No required upfront capital expenditure
• Duty to contract with each player of the value chain is delegated

“At Carbon Clean, we use our leading technology to capture CO₂. and will work with partners to provide the other crucial elements of the value chain: compression, transportation, sequestration or utilization. Our mission is to work with industrial partners to offer an end-to-end handling of our customers’ CO₂.” Tim Cowan, VP Corporate Development at Carbon Clean.

Tax credits, direct subsidies and price support mechanisms are beginning to encourage investment in CCUS. The US, for example, has a 45Q-tax credit that provides a fixed payment per ton of carbon dioxide sequestered or used. The IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) has increased the amount of the credit from $50 to $85 a ton for sequestered industrial or power emission, and from $50 to $180 a ton for emissions captured from the atmosphere and sequestered.  In other words, they provide a direct revenue stream immediately improving the investment case for low-carbon technologies, such as CCUS. What the IRA calls tax credits, the EU calls State Aid. Yet, the panelists affirm that while the EU led the whole decarbonization movement for 30 years, the EU is now behind in terms of policy.

Another element is the uneven distribution of storage sites across Europe. Often illustrated as the ‘chicken and egg’ paradox, there is a need to scale the value chain as a whole, including storage infrastructure. Indeed, a carbon capture plant will not start operating until the captured CO₂ can be transported and then either permanently stored or used.  Similarly, no large-scale carbon storage project will be financed without clear commitments regarding the origin and volume of CO2 to be stored, as it determines the financial viability of the overall project.

Norway’s Longship project, which is sponsored by the Norwegian government, aims to solve this problem by supporting the whole value chain from carbon capture to transportation and storage. Captured emissions will be transported by tankship and stored deep underground using Northern Light’s open-access CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure.

Finally, speakers also emphasized that addressing public concerns around the safety of these technologies will be paramount. Communicating that carbon capture is safe, effective and a needed method of climate change mitigation, can help bring people on-board and ensure that projects overcome development hurdles. “I think honesty in the media about the situation would be a true incentive. If the public understood how urgent the situation is, and understood more about the technology, there would be a lot more action”. Michaels Evans, CEO of Cambridge Carbon Capture

Context 

Our client was the M&A department of a leading nuclear company.

Until now, the department had always taken majority stakes in established companies. However, an interesting opportunity for a minority investment in an innovative start-up was presented to them by a Business Unit of the group.

Aster Fab’s mission was to assist the department in evaluating the opportunity and then in structuring the investment proposal.

Mission

• Valuation of the startup using five different methods (comparable company analysis, precedent transactions, DCF analysis, R&D headcount, replacement cost value)
• Creation of a business plan in coordination with the Head of Business Unit to identify the business potential of such a partnership
• Structuring the investment proposal by drafting the letter of intent setting out the terms, governance, management package, performance criteria, etc
• Assistance, coordination and negotiation with all stakeholders throughout the process
• Support in the preparation of separate documents for the governance bodies

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